World Cup 2015 Prediction : India

Past Performances

"India have been over-achievers at World Cups."

As far as World Cups are concerned, India have usually been over-achievers - the one exception being 2007. Going chronologically backwards, they were expected to perform strongly at home, but winning the cup was more hope than expectation. 2003 WC was followed by a string of series losses, and a poor start to the cup meant that people would not have expected them to go very far. They surprised everyone again, reaching the finals.Similar were the stories of World Cups before that, including 1983, when WIndies were the favorites, and England were expected to make the finals.

That said, India have never been an all-round strong team in any World Cups. There have been an exceptional few that have always risen to the stage when the team has come wanting: 

• Yuvraj, Gambhir and Zaheer were clearly the stand-out performers in 2011, well-aided by Tendulkar, Kohli, Raina
• 2003 had been all about Tendulkar, with bits-and-pieces performances by Dravid, Nehra, Ganguly and Sehwag
• Kapil Dev and Mohinder Amarnath had done the heavy-lifting during the '83 cup

"Virat Kohli will be the leading performer for India in 2015, but he lacks support."

Fast bowlers have always been more of a liability for India in World Cups, 1983 and 2003 being [pleasant] exceptions. 2015 seems to be no exception. However, the batting used to cover up for the sub-par performances by the pace attack earlier. That does not seem to be the case this time around. Lack of support for spin in Australian conditions will further magnify the incompetence of Indian pace attack if they do not get into the grove soon.

Recent Performance

After the drubbing against New Zealand and South Africa early last year, India came back strongly in ODIs with series wins against Bangladesh, England, West Indies and Sri Lanka. Their performance in England definitely rose hopes that this team might well succeed in outside the sub-continent, but the performance in the recent tri-series in Australia has been dismal. Many in the current team - Rahane, Stuart Binny, Rohit Sharma - have shown promise, but haven't quite built on it. Others - Shikhar Dhawan, Umesh Yadav, Mohd. Shami - have been dreadful. While Shikhar Dhawan has been in all sorts of trouble against the new ball, Umesh and Shami have bowled with predictable inconsistency.

The wins over the last couple of years were heavily built on the back of Virat Kohli with the bat and Bhuvneshwar Kumar with the ball. Both of them being currently out of form has been one of the reasons why India has looked off-color in the recent series.

The other reason has been the obsession with batting first in this tri-series. India batted first in all four of its matches in this series, while most of their wins in the recent past have come while chasing.

While not too much should be read into one series' performance, its proximity to the world cup and the fact that it is on the same grounds that will host the world cup, makes it a reason to worry.

Player Form

Openers
If fit, Rohit Sharma has performed decent enough to merit a slot right at the top. While Ajinkya Rahane too has performed well in whatever chances he has had opening, Shikhar Dhawan has not won the confidence of many. The only reason why he might still play is because of Dhoni's preference for a left-right combination at the top.
I believe India will start their world cup campaign with Sharma (if fit) and Dhawan opening, and then switch to Rahane if Dhawan does not perform. The trouble here is that the first two matches - against Pakistan and South Africa - are supposed to be the toughest in the group stage.
Middle Order
Should Sharma and Dhawan open, Rahane will move down to #3 or 4, which will significantly strengthen the middle order, provided Dhawan and Sharma do perform at the top. On paper, Kohli, Rahane, Raina and Dhoni look like a solid middle order, however, neither have performed to their potential in the recent past, and that has been the major headache for India. To have any shot at the title, India need at least a couple of them - preferably Kohli and Dhoni - to be back in form. In the other scenario where Rahane moves to open the batting, Rayudu will take his place in the middle order. While he has not been electric, he hasn't been too bad either in the chances he has received. If Kohli and Raina do start exploding, Rayudu has the capability to play the perfect foil.
Lower Middle Order and Tail
This time around, most teams boast of a deep batting line up. India's reserves do not look that full though. On paper, Binny, Jadeja, Axar Patel and Bhuvneshwar all have the capability to score some runs, they haven't been up to the task in australian conditions.
Spin Bowling
Axar and Jadeja have been capable enough to stop the run flow, but their wicket taking abilities have been questionable. Given there batting performances have not been quite electrifying, to say the least, playing both of them seems questionable. With Ashwin also unable to take wickets in Australia, India definitely are lacking a genuine spinner in this squad.
Pace Bowling
This seems to be the biggest itch that India have had since ever. There hasn't been a single bowler who has shown the ability to consistently bowl good deliveries. Bhuvi had done that for some time, but post the recent injury, and with the further dropped pace, he has barely looked threatening. Binny being the best performing fast bowler in the recent series says something about the current flock of pacers that India has.

Final Verdict

While the group stages have been planned in a way that most of the top 8 reach the quarters, based on the recent form and players' experience, India look like they will head back home immediately after the quarters, if not earlier. However, taking past into account, and the rapport that this team has to perform during crunch situations, I predict them to at least reach the semi-finals.